With just under week to go with hurricane season, the latest outlook and forecast is likely to be one to watch with an active year ahead once again. According to both the National Hurricane Center and National Oceanic Atmosphere Administration, it is forecasting one of the highest percentage of storms in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico at 85 percent. This is all thinks to the La Nina weather pattern that will be taking over this summer and continuing into the fall season. A La Nina patterns means that the trade winds are stronger than an El Nino, where those trade winds area weaker over ocean waters. The La Nina also pushes more warmer waters towards the continent of Asia and cooler waters off the coast of both North and South America. It can also lead to a dry and warm to the southeastern United States and a cool and wet west out west.
According to the NOAA, they are forecasting at least 17-25 name storms and at least 4-7 major hurricanes. Out of the statistic for hurricanes, at least 8-13 could reach that status for the season. With these numbers and stats out, those numbers could also go higher if more named storms are forecasted, thanks to warmer than average water temperatures this summer and fall season. Another source that puts out their forecast is from Colorado State University, which posted their predictions earlier this spring. They are forecasting at least five major hurricanes, 11 that will reach hurricane status, and 23 tropical storms to brewing in the warm ocean waters.
Dr. Rick Spinrad, who is NOAA’s Administrator said we can expect a higher than usual number storms thanks to warmer waters.
“Forecast modeling indicates that above average sea surface temperatures are predicted during the peak months of the Atlantic hurricane season from August to October.”
Another thing to note from NOAA is that the southern states have been inundated with flooding and strong storms in the past week, which has caused a lot of flooding to occur easy and that might be an issue if a stronger hurricane makes an impact.
In order for a storms to get a classified for a name, a tropical storm must must reach winds with at 39-74 mph. As for the start of category name status, winds must begin as low as 74 mph winds as a category 1 to winds up to 157 mph winds as a category 5 status.
Here are the 2024 names for this hurricane season listed below. Some of the names may look familiar, as the names recycle out every six years. The only two different names on the list that were replaced was Florence and Michael, since those were retired. Those names on the list have been replaced with Francine and Milton. This years names are rotating from the 2018 season, which that year was a transition from a La Nina to an El Nino year.
As go into the start of the hurricane season, which runs from, June 1-November 30, be sure to stay with WITN’s First Alert Weather Team for the latest on the named storms and if Eastern North Carolina will see any direct impacts this year. Be sure to download the WITN First Alert Weather App in both the Apple and Google Play stores for the latest push alerts and warnings that could get issued.